What’s happened?

On January 10th Republican presidential contenders held their latest debate in Iowa, where the country’s first presidential primary (or caucus, in Iowa) will take place on January 15th. Donald Trump, the former president and current front-runner for the 2024 nomination, once again skipped the debate but continues to dominate the field. We expect him to perform well in early Republican primaries, although several pending court cases threaten his campaign.  

Why does it matter?

The Iowa caucuses, which are held in a more informal setting than other states’ primaries, will be an important early sign of candidates’ viability. Mr Trump currently leads his two main rivals—a former South Carolina governor, Nikki Haley, and the Florida governor, Ron DeSantis—by about 30 points in Iowa. The question therefore is not who will win (we expect Mr Trump to win handily), but whether Ms Haley or Mr DeSantis can chip away at his hold on the electorate.

Ms Haley’s performance in recent debates has bolstered her standing and is likely to benefit her in Iowa. Following the January 10th debate, she inched ahead of Mr DeSantis in Iowa for the first time, with 17.1% of support versus Mr DeSantis’s 15.7%, according to polling aggregates from FiveThirtyEight. In the light of Mr Trump’s 52% polling in Iowa, this remains a clear competition for second place. The candidates, and particularly Ms Haley, were more willing to criticise Mr Trump in the January debate than in previous ones, but this has not affected Mr Trump’s polling lead.

If Mr Trump wins in Iowa by a similarly large margin, this will boost his standing heading into more competitive primaries. However, a weaker showing in Iowa could change the outlook, including in New Hampshire on January 23rd, where polls show Ms Haley within striking distance of Mr Trump.

The US Supreme Court will hear arguments in February on the efforts by some states, specifically Colorado, to bar Mr Trump from the November ballot on the grounds that he fomented the January 6th 2021 insurrection at the Capitol (which he denies). The risk for Mr Trump’s rivals is that the Supreme Court case further energises his supporters ahead of the November polls, assuming he is able to stand.

What next?

We still believe that the chances are slim that either Ms Haley or Mr DeSantis will be able to derail Mr Trump’s candidacy. Mr Trump’s committed supporter base has been unaffected by his court battles. One potential risk is the perception among voters that the more moderate Ms Haley has a better chance of beating the incumbent, Joe Biden, in the general election; the Iowa and New Hampshire primaries will help to answer that question.

The analysis and forecasts featured in this report can be found in EIU’s Country Analysis service. This integrated solution provides unmatched global insights covering the political and economic outlook for nearly 200 countries, enabling organisations to identify prospective opportunities and potential risks.