What’s happened?

An emerging political movement known as No Labels may nominate an independent ticket to compete in the November 2024 US presidential election. The group, which presents itself as a centrist alternative to the Democratic and Republican Parties, has already gained access to the ballot in ten states. Like other third parties, No Labels has little chance of winning the election. However, it could still shape the final result by diverting votes away from the mainstream parties.

Why does it matter?

The rapid rise of No Labels can be attributed largely to early polling results, which have pointed to considerable voter appetite for an alternative to the Democratic and Republican front-runners. Joe Biden, the Democratic president, and Donald Trump, his likely Republican rival, have long suffered from low popularity. Recent polls have also highlighted a sizeable share of voters who prefer that neither candidate runs at all. These and subsequent early polls will benefit No Labels, attracting attention from some donors and centrist politicians, and raising the group’s visibility.

However, we expect this momentum to dissipate as the election draws closer and the composition of the Democratic and Republican tickets becomes clearer. Primary voting begins in January, followed by a rapid and all-consuming process of selecting nominees by the summer. This should quickly anchor voter interest towards the mainstream parties, as usually happens. Other factors weighing against No Labels will include fierce counter-campaigning by Democrats and Republicans (who will frame the group as an election “spoiler”), voter scepticism (including over No Labels’ funding sources, which remain partially undeclared) and concern that a No Labels vote would be a throwaway (the electoral colleges’ winner-takes-all system strongly favours the mainstream parties). If polls capture these dynamics before April, when No Labels holds its nominating convention, the group might choose against putting forward a ticket, as its leaders have suggested.

If a No Labels ticket does emerge, it could influence the final election result even without winning. This risk would be greatest if No Labels attracted independent and swing votes, given that the next election will be close. It is unclear whether Democrats or Republicans would benefit more, and much will depend on the No Labels ticket. Joe Manchin, the conservative Democratic senator from West Virginia, has emerged as a potential candidate, which could disfavour Mr Biden. Others include several Republicans, such as a former Utah governor, Jon Huntsman, and this could hurt Mr Trump.

What next?

As in 2020, centrist voters will play a key role in determining the 2024 election outcome. If voter apathy towards the mainstream parties is stronger than expected, we will factor in a larger role for third parties like No Labels in swaying the final results.

The analysis and forecasts featured in this report can be found in EIU’s Country Analysis service. This integrated solution provides unmatched global insights covering the political and economic outlook for nearly 200 countries, enabling organisations to identify prospective opportunities and potential risks.