Preliminary results from the Election Commission show that the opposition Move Forward Party (MFP) has won the highest number of seats in Thailand’s House of Representatives (lower house). Another opposition party, the Puea Thai Party (PTP), is a close second. The ruling Phalang Pracharat (PP) and the United Thai Nation (UTN), which backs the prime minister, Prayuth Chan-ocha, came in fourth and fifth respectively.

The election results herald a new era in Thai politics, with a distinct liberal left-leaning tilt. The MFP’s victory clearly reflects a desire for change among voters. Its constant message that it would not seek an alliance with military-aligned parties set the MFP apart from the PTP.

The MFP has successfully widened its appeal from young urban voters to a wider base. It swept 32 out of 33 seats in the capital, Bangkok, and won several seats in rural provinces elsewhere in Thailand. Its progressive call to create a more just society resonated widely with voters. The poor performance of the military-aligned parties indicates middle-class voters’ dissatisfaction with economic conditions and the economy’s direction—in particular the lagging performance in terms of GDP growth and foreign direct investment inflows compared to the country’s peers in the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN). 

Despite its strong victory, there are more obstacles on the MFP’s path to power. The party is forming a coalition government with the PTP and three or four other parties, which will command up to 309 votes. However, it needs more than 375 votes to achieve a simple majority in parliament, as the current Thai constitution allows the 250 appointed members of the Senate (upper house) to vote for the choice of prime minister, along with the 500 elected members of the lower house.

Given the MFP’s platform to seek an amendment or abolition of the lese-majesty law and reform of the monarchy, a number of conservative senators may not support the MFP candidate, Pita Limjaroenrat. It is therefore not yet certain that Pita will gain the votes he needs to become prime minister. Furthermore, there is an allegation that Pita owns shares in a media company, which is prohibited under Thai law to prevent abuse of media for political gain. Pita could be disqualified if the court finds him guilty.

Parliament will convene in July after the Election Commission announces its official results. EIU expects parliament to endorse the new opposition-led government (eventually), but not without pushback from the conservative establishment. If the MFP-led coalition fails to obtain backing in the Senate, the PTP will try next to put together a coalition government, which may include parties from the current ruling bloc.

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