In EIU’s latest global outlook video, global forecasting director, Agathe Demarais, and senior analyst, Adeline VanHoutte, discuss Turkey’s upcoming elections and why they matter.

There is no doubt that the race is between the current president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and the main opposition alliance candidate, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu.

EIU expects Erdogan will be reelected, as he retains the backing of much of the conservative electorate; has kept a high public profile; and dominates the media. He has also been using the “election economy” tactic by announcing a vast array of benefits, such as increases in pay and low interest on credit as the election draws closer. 

That being said, this will be a particularly challenging election for Mr Erdogan, as he faces a broader opposition alliance and presides over a faltering economy, characterised by highly unorthodox economic policies, rampant inflation and a record trade deficit. Additionally, the recent earthquakes that have hit Turkey have created further uncertainty around the elections. 

“You can expect instability and friction around these elections and whoever comes into power is likely to preside over a large public deficit–given the need for earthquake recovery, recent expansionary policies and electoral pledges that will all add to the pressure of public finance.”

ADELINE VANHOUTTE, SENIOR ANALYST, EIU

The analysis and forecasts featured in this piece can be found in EIU’s Country Analysis service. This integrated solution provides unmatched global insights covering the political and economic outlook for nearly 200 countries, enabling organisations to identify prospective opportunities and potential risks.