The most important elections to watch in 2023 will be the Turkish presidential and parliamentary elections in May and the Spanish general election in December. In Turkey we expect the president to be re-elected, but he will face one of the toughest tests of his 20-year rule and is likely to lose his majority in parliament. The election could trigger large-scale political unrest, especially in the case of a tight race or if the president refuses to concede a potential loss. In Spain support for the right-wing People’s Party (PP) has surged sharply since February, and it is likely to win the largest vote-share in the election. However, forming a right-wing majority would require the support of the far-right, conservative Vox. A PP-Vox government would be the third government including or backed by a far-right party emerging in a major European country after Italy and Sweden.

Other important elections will be held in Greece and Poland. In Greece changes to the electoral rules mean that the ruling centre-right New Democracy (ND) will struggle to secure a parliamentary majority, which could cause a political crisis and a snap election in 2023‑24. In Poland, the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party is set to gain the largest share of the vote at the coming parliamentary election, but the liberal democratic opposition is likely to gather enough support to secure a majority in parliament. This would pave the way for improved relations with the EU, which have deteriorated significantly under PiS-led governments.

As Europe’s energy crisis and recession deepen, the likelihood of public discontent will increase. This will come at the expense of incumbents, who are struggling to manage slowing economic activity, record-breaking inflation and energy insecurity. The main policy priorities for European governments will persist regardless of election results—support for Ukraine, the need to prioritise energy security and managing the cost-of-living crisis. Issues that could receive greater attention are migration controls, fiscal prudence and protectionist measures. South-eastern Europe, with its various elections in 2023, including likely snap elections in Montenegro and Bulgaria, will be particularly vulnerable to political instability, given its limited ability to absorb shocks, public discontent and low institutional effectiveness.

The analysis and forecasts featured in this piece can be found in EIU’s Country Analysis service. This integrated solution provides unmatched global insights covering the political and economic outlook for nearly 200 countries, helping organisations identify prospective opportunities and potential risks.