Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) has today released its Risk Outlook for 2022. The report predicts the ten biggest risk scenarios that could impact world growth and inflation in the coming year.

EIU expects the post-pandemic recovery to continue in 2022, with global GDP expanding by 4.1%, after rebounding by an estimated 5.4% in 2021. However, there are a host of scenarios that would see growth diverge from the EIU’s core forecasts in a way that would materially affect global business operations. 

EIU’s top ten risk scenarios for 2022

1. Worsening US-China ties force a full decoupling in the global economy

2. An unexpectedly fast monetary tightening leads to a US stockmarket crash

3. A property crash in China leads to a sharp economic slowdown

4. Tighter domestic and global financial conditions derail the recovery in emerging markets

5. New Covid-19 variants emerge that prove resistant to vaccines

6. Widespread social unrest weighs on the global recovery

7. Conflict erupts between China and Taiwan, forcing the US to intervene

8. EU-China ties worsen significantly

9. Severe droughts prompt a famine

10. An inter-state cyberwar cripples state infrastructure in major economies

Download the free report “EIU Risk Outlook 2022: 10 scenarios that could impact global growth and inflation.”