Between March 30th and 31st China’s National Health Commission reported 15 confirmed and 45 asymptomatic cases of the coronavirus (Covid-19), of which 16 were Burmese, in Ruili, Dehong, south-west Yunnan Province.

The outbreak—the first in China since February 2021—was discovered during routine testing. This prompted the National Health Commission to send a working group to oversee the situation. The authorities carried out testing on all residents by April 1st and placed the city on lockdown for seven days. Mass Covid‑19 vaccinations will begin on April 1st in Ruili and three other border towns. We expect this approach to end transmission of Covid-19 in the area within one to two months, as with previous local outbreaks, but it will weigh on tourism activity in Yunnan in the second quarter.

Ruili is a major border crossing between China and Muse, in the north-eastern state of Shan, Myanmar. In 2019 about 40,000 Burmese applied for temporary residence permits and there were about 17m border crossings, mainly for the purposes of trade and work. Since Covid-19, Ruili has banned entries from Myanmar, although more than 2,000 people tried to cross the border illegally in 2020, and some may have succeeded.

The military coup in Myanmar and subsequent protests are likely to have spurred more Burmese people to cross into China. North-eastern Myanmar is inhabited by several Burmese ethnic groups, several of which have armed militias. Large areas of Shan remain out of the control of Myanmar’s military, and many groups have close ties with China. Following the coup tensions have risen between the ethnic groups and the junta, with three threatening to launch an attack to protect protesters and prevent the junta from encroaching on their territory. The Chinese government is aware that this may spur more people to try to escape the region and has tightened border controls in response, with Ruili authorities reporting on March 31st that over half of local officials and state-sector workers had been sent to patrol the border.

The risk of armed conflict in Shan is likely to prompt the Chinese government to take a more active diplomatic stance on Myanmar given concerns about border security. The Chinese foreign minister, Wang Yi, is scheduled to host one-on-one talks with Association of South-East Asian Nations foreign ministers in Fujian in April.

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