Growth in services demand and fall in unemployment claims boost Q3 nowcast

2024-04-06 15:05

    • The EIU nowcast for the US economy for Q3 2020 improved to 4.06% (quarter-on-quarter) as of last week, compared with 3.86% during the week ending 16th October.

    According to the EIU’s nowcast model, US GDP is predicted to expand by 1.80 % (quarter-on-quarter) in Q4 2020, improving from the nowcast of 1.19% the week before.

    • For the month of September, new private housing units authorized by building permits rose by 5.22% (month-on-month) — above the EIU’s nowcast model projections. Housing starts also rose by 1.95% (month-on-month) compared with August.

    • Services PMI from IHS Markit improved to 56.01 for October 2020 indicating the fourth straight month of growth in the service sector and the strongest since March 2019, whereas manufacturing PMI increased only slightly to 53.30 compared with 52.24 in September.

    • Initial claims for unemployment insurance declined to 787,000 compared with 842,000 the week before.

    • To get the full background to our EIU Nowcast, view our methodology and FAQs page or contact us using the form below.

    Data releases (last week)

    IndicatorsReference PeriodLatest dataPrevious data
    New Pvt Housing Units Authorized by Building Permit [Flash] (SAAR, Thous.Units)Sep (20’)1553.001476.00
    Housing Starts (SAAR, Thous.Units)Sep (20’)1415.001388.00
    Unemployment Insurance: Initial Claims, State Programs (SA, Thous)Oct (20’)787.00849.00
    US PMI: Svcs Business Activity Index [Flash] [Latest Est incl Flash](SA, 50+=Expansion)Oct (20’)56.0154.56
    US Markit PMI: Manufacturing [Flash] [Latest Estimates incl Flash] (SA, 50 +=Expansion)Oct (20’)53.2653.24

    Data releases (current week)

    IndicatorsReference PeriodRelease Date
    New Pvt Housing Units Authorized by Building Permit [Actual] (SAAR, Thous.Units)Sep (20’)26th Oct 2020
    Manufacturers’ New Orders: Durable Goods [Flash] (SA, Mil.$)Sep (20’)27th Oct 2020
    Manufacturers’ Inventories: Durable Goods [Flash] (EOP, SA, Mil.$)Sep (20’)27th Oct 2020
    Manufacturers’ Unfilled Orders: Durable Goods [Flash] (EOP, SA, Mil.$)Sep (20’)27th Oct 2020
    Conference Board: Consumer Confidence (SA, 1985=100)Oct (20’)27th Oct 2020
    Conference Board: Consumer Confidence Present Situation (SA, 1985=100)Oct (20’)27th Oct 2020
    Conference Board: Consumer Expectations (SA, 1985=100)Oct (20’)27th Oct 2020
    Exports, f.a.s.: Goods [Flash] (SA, Mil.$)Sep (20’)28th Oct 2020
    Imports, Customs Value: Goods [Flash] (SA, Mil.$)Sep (20’)28th Oct 2020
    Unemployment Insurance: Initial Claims, State Programs (SA, Thous)Oct (20’)29th Oct 2020
    University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment [Actual] (NSA, Q1-66=100)Oct (20’)30th Oct 2020
    University of Michigan: Current Economic Conditions [Actual](NSA, Q1-66=100)Oct (20’)30th Oct 2020
    University of Michigan: Consumer Expectations [Actual] (NSA, Q1-66=100)Oct (20’)30th Oct 2020
    Real Disposable Personal Income (SAAR, Bil.Chn.2012$)Sep (20’)30th Oct 2020
    Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (SAAR, Bil.Chn.2012$)Sep (20’)30th Oct 2020
    MNI-Chicago Report: Business Barometer Index (SA, 50+ = Econ Growth)Oct (20’)30th Oct 2020

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