In the week to October 19th the US reported a daily average of 59,261 new coronavirus (Covid‑19) cases—up by 34% compared with two weeks earlier. The reported death toll passed 220,000 on October 19th.

The trajectory of the pandemic has changed markedly since the summer, with important political ramifications. At the start of the pandemic, areas with densely populated urban centres like New York, California and Washington, DC bore the brunt of hospitalisations and deaths. Many states in the south and the Midwest were less affected at the outset; they were among the quickest to lift lockdown measures in May, which caused case numbers to spike in July.

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The latest surge has been much broader; the number of new cases rose in 48 of 50 states in the week to October 19th compared with the week before—a worrying sign as the winter months approach. Several states that will be battlegrounds in the 2020 election, including Colorado, North Carolina, Minnesota and Wisconsin, set new single-day infection records in mid-October, according to Johns Hopkins University.

Rising case numbers and the hospitalisation of the president, Donald Trump, in early October have cemented the pandemic’s place at the forefront of the election campaign. On October 19th polls tracked by FiveThirtyEight, an online election analysis site, showed that 57.5% of Americans disapproved of Mr Trump’s handling of the crisis, while less than 40% approved of it. Crucially, only 35% of independent voters approved of Mr Trump’s handling of the crisis, suggesting that he will struggle to retain support from swing voters in the upcoming polls.

Mr Trump has sought to minimise the impact of the pandemic as hopes evaporate that a vaccine will be ready for distribution by election day. He has also ratcheted up attacks against his opponent, Joe Biden, and his family, and against the news media. These arguments will appeal to his core support base, but will do little to win over centrist voters. Conversely, Mr Biden has focused his messaging on steps that his administration would take to slow the virus’s spread and boost the economy, which is widening his lead with key demographic groups, particularly senior citizens.

Impact on the forecast

The widening arc of Covid‑19 cases is focusing voters’ attention on the Trump administration’s response to the pandemic. This does not help Mr Trump’s campaign, particularly in battleground states. This fits with our forecast that Mr Biden will win the November 3rd election.