Strong September retail data lift Q3 nowcast to 3.8 per cent
2024-04-06 15:20
The EIU nowcast for the US economy for Q3 2020 improved to 3.86% (quarter-on-quarter) as of last week, compared with 3.10% during the week ending 9th October.
According to the EIU’s nowcast model, US GDP is predicted to expand by 1.19 % (quarter-on-quarter) in Q4 2020, weakening slightly from the nowcast of 1.27% the week before.
Industrial production index and capacity utilization in the industrial sector declined marginally in comparison with the month of August — with both remaining below pre-pandemic levels.
Retail sales improved by 1.9% (month-on-month) for September, marking the highest rise in the last 3 months.
The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment and expectations improved for the month of October — above EIU nowcast model projections.
October releases for diffusion indices presented a mixed picture. The Empire State manufacturing survey diffusion index weakened but the Philadelphia manufacturing survey diffusion index improved in comparison with September.
Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased to at 898,000 against 845,000 the week before — the highest in last two months.
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Data releases (last week)
Indicators Reference Period Latest data Previous data Empire State Manufacturing Survey, Seasonally adjusted diffusion index Sep (20’) 10.50 17.00 Philadelphia Manufacturing Survey Current Activity Diffusion Index Oct (20’) 32.30 15.00 Philadelphia Manufacturing Survey New Orders Oct (20’) 42.60 25.50 Unemployment Insurance: Initial Claims, State Programs (SA, Thous) Oct (20’) 898.00 849.00 Industrial Production Index (SA, 2012=100) Sep (20’) 101.50 102.20 Capacity Utilization: Industry (SA, Percent of Capacity) Sep (20’) 71.50 72.00 Retail Sales & Food Services (SA, Mil.$) Oct (20’) 549256.00 538979.00 University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment (NSA, Q1-66=100) Oct (20’) 81.20 80.40 University of Michigan: Current Economic Conditions (NSA, Q1-66=100) Oct (20’) 84.90 87.80 University of Michigan: Consumer Expectations (NSA, Q1-66=100) Oct (20’) 78.80 75.60 Data releases (current week)
Indicators Reference Period Release Date New Pvt Housing Units Authorized by Building Permit [Flash] (SAAR, Thous.Units) Sep (20’) 20th Oct 2020 Housing Starts (SAAR, Thous.Units) Sep (20’) 20th Oct 2020 Unemployment Insurance: Initial Claims, State Programs (SA, Thous) Oct (20’) 22nd Oct 2020 US PMI: Svcs Business Activity Index [Flash] [Latest Est incl Flash](SA, 50+=Expansion) Oct (20’) 23rd Oct 2020 US Markit PMI: Manufacturing [Flash] [Latest Estimates incl Flash] (SA, 50 +=Expansion) Oct (20’) 23rd Oct 2020 Contact us
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