Manufacturing outlook lifts Q3 GDP estimate slightly

2024-04-06 15:24

    • The EIU nowcast for the US economy for Q3 2020 improved to 3.10% (quarter-on-quarter) as of last week, compared with 3.08% during the week ending 2nd October.

    According to the EIU’s nowcast model, US GDP is predicted to expand by 1.27 % (quarter-on-quarter) in Q4 2020, improving slightly from the nowcast of 1.24% the week before.

    • The ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index reached 57.8 for the month of September, beating market expectations.

    • Positive revisions of July and August data for trade indicators further improved the nowcast for the week.

    • Initial claims for unemployment insurance stood at 840,000 for the week ending on October 3rd — still above pre-pandemic levels but relatively low in comparison with March 2020.

    • To get the full background to our EIU Nowcast, view our methodology and FAQs page or contact us using the form below.

    Data releases (last week)

    IndicatorsReference PeriodLatest dataPrevious data
    ISM Non Manufacturing : NMI Composite Index (SA, +50=Increasing)Sep (20’)57.8056.90
    US PMI: Svcs Business Activity Index [Actual] [Latest Est incl Flash](SA, 50+=Expansion)Sep (20’)54.5655.02
    Exports, f.a.s.: Goods [Actual] (SA, Mil.$)Sep (20’)118750.30115336.80
    Imports, Customs Value: Goods [Actual] (SA, Mil.$)Sep (20’)201863.70195349.30
    Unemployment Insurance: Initial Claims, State Programs (SA, Thous)Oct (20’)840.00849.00

    Data releases (current week)

    IndicatorsReference PeriodRelease Date
    Empire State Manufacturing Survey, Seasonally adjusted diffusion indexOct (20’)15th Oct 2020
    Philadelphia Manufacturing Survey Current Activity Diffusion IndexOct (20’)15th Oct 2020
    Philadelphia Manufacturing Survey New OrdersOct (20’)15th Oct 2020
    Unemployment Insurance: Initial Claims, State Programs (SA, Thous)Oct (20’)15th Oct 2020
    Industrial Production Index (SA, 2012=100)Sep (20’)16th Oct 2020
    Capacity Utilization: Industry (SA, Percent of Capacity)Sep (20’)16th Oct 2020
    Retail Sales & Food Services (SA, Mil.$)Oct (20’)16th Oct 2020
    University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment (NSA, Q1-66=100)Oct (20’)16th Oct 2020
    University of Michigan: Current Economic Conditions (NSA, Q1-66=100)Oct (20’)16th Oct 2020
    University of Michigan: Consumer Expectations (NSA, Q1-66=100)Oct (20’)16th Oct 2020

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