Q3 GDP nowcast revised down on disappointing September jobs data
2024-04-06 15:32
The EIU nowcast for the US economy for Q3 2020 weakened to 3.08% (quarter-on-quarter) as of last week, compared with 3.49% during the week ending 25th September.
The nascent US labour market recovery seems to be running out of steam as nonfarm payrolls data from the BLS for September was lower than expected, and fell from the levels seen in August; this offsets the higher-than-expected private employment data from the ADP.
Initial claims for unemployment insurance also continued to remain elevated, decreasing only slightly to 837,000 in comparison with last week.
Manufacturing PMI from ISM came in at 55.4, showing expansion in factory activities but easing down from the previous month.
August data for imports, exports and real personal consumption expenditure continued to increase (with trade data returning to pre-pandemic levels).
However, real personal disposable income fell by 3.50% (month-on-month) from July due to decreases in unemployment benefits.
On the positive side, the MNI-Chicago business barometer index increased to 62.4 in September, marking the biggest expansion in business activity since February 2019.
Consumer confidence indicators from the Conference Board for September showed strong broad-based improvements, but still remained below pre-pandemic levels.
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Data releases (last week)
Indicators Reference Period Latest data Previous data Conference Board: Consumer Confidence (SA, 1985=100) Sep (20’) 101.80 86.30 Conference Board: Consumer Confidence Present Situation (SA, 1985=100) Sep (20’) 98.50 85.80 Conference Board: Consumer Expectations (SA, 1985=100) Sep (20’) 104.00 86.60 MNI-Chicago Report: Business Barometer Index (SA, 50+ = Econ Growth) Sep (20’) 62.40 51.20 ADP Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (SA Change, Thous.) Sep (20’) 749.00 481.00 Real Disposable Personal Income (SAAR, Bil.Chn.2012$) Aug (20’) 15502.60 16064.70 Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (SAAR, Bil.Chn.2012$) Aug (20’) 12874.40 12788.30 Unemployment Insurance: Initial Claims, State Programs (SA, Thous) Sep (20’) 837.00 884.00 US Markit PMI: Manufacturing [Actual] [Latest Estimates incl Flash] (SA, 50 +=Expansion) Sep (20’) 53.24 53.11 ISM Mfg: PMI Composite Index (SA, 50+ = Econ Expand) Sep (20’) 55.40 56.00 Manufacturers’ New Orders: Durable Goods [Actual] (SA, Mil.$) Aug (20’) 233187.00 231807.00 Manufacturers’ Inventories: Durable Goods [Actual] (EOP, SA, Mil.$) Aug (20’) 420390.00 421002.00 Manufacturers’ Unfilled Orders: Durable Goods [Actual] (EOP, SA, Mil.$) Aug (20’) 1078631.00 1084776.00 Exports, f.a.s.: Goods (SA, Mil.$) Aug (20’) 118348.40 115175.30 Imports, Customs Value: Goods (SA, Mil.$) Aug (20’) 201287.70 195289.00 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls excluding the Effect of Strikes (SA, Thous) Sep (20’) 657.00 1489.00 University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment (NSA, Q1-66=100) Sep (20’) 80.40 74.10 University of Michigan: Current Economic Conditions (NSA, Q1-66=100) Sep (20’) 87.80 82.90 University of Michigan: Consumer Expectations (NSA, Q1-66=100) Sep (20’) 75.60 68.50 Data releases (current week)
Indicators Reference Period Release Date ISM Non Manufacturing : NMI Composite Index (SA, +50=Increasing) Sep (20’) 5th Oct 2020 US PMI: Svcs Business Activity Index [Actual] [Latest Est incl Flash](SA, 50+=Expansion) Sep (20’) 5th Oct 2020 US PMI: Svcs Business Activity Index [Actual] [Latest Est incl Flash](SA, 50+=Expansion) Sep (20’) 5th Oct 2020 Exports, f.a.s.: Goods [Actual] (SA, Mil.$) Aug (20’) 6th Oct 2020 Imports, Customs Value: Goods [Actual] (SA, Mil.$) Aug (20’) 6th Oct 2020 Unemployment Insurance: Initial Claims, State Programs (SA, Thous) Oct (20’) 8th Oct 2020 Contact us
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