Partial recovery in services nudges up Q2 GDP nowcast, but Q3 recovery remains modest

2024-04-06 17:03

  • The EIU nowcast for the US economy for Q2 2020 improved to -8.21%
    (quarter-on-quarter) as of last week, compared with -8.31% during the week ending July 3rd.

    According to the EIU’s nowcast model, US GDP is predicted to expand by 0.52 % (quarter-on-quarter)  in Q3 2020, improving slightly from the nowcast of 0.47%  the week before.

    • Last week witnessed the release of June data for non-manufacturing purchasing managers’ index by ISM at 57.1, 11.6 points higher as compared with the month of May, the largest month on month increase since 1997.

    • IHS revised services PMI data for the month of June, improving from the preliminary estimate of 46.67 to 47.93 due to the reopening of some of the non-essential business in the U.S. economy as the lockdown restrictions are lifted.

    • Following the improved releases for the month of June, the EIU nowcast improved for 2020 Q2 for the week and projects a mild 0.52 % (quarter-on-quarter) growth for 2020 Q3. 

    • To get the full background to our EIU Nowcast, view our methodology and FAQs page or contact us using the form below.

    Data releases (last week)

    IndicatorsReference PeriodLatest dataPrevious data
    ISM Non Manufacturing : NMI Composite Index (SA, +50=Increasing)Jun (20’)57.1045.40
    US PMI: Svcs Business Activity Index [Actual] [Latest Est incl Flash](SA, 50+=Expansion)Jun (20’)47.9337.50
    Unemployment Insurance: Initial Claims, State Programs (SA, Thous)Jun (20’)1413.001897.00

    Data releases (current week)

    IndicatorsReference PeriodRelease Date
    Industrial Production Index (SA, 2012=100)Jun (20’)15th July 2020
    Capacity Utilization: Industry (SA, Percent of Capacity)Jun (20’)15th July 2020
    Empire State Manufacturing Survey, Seasonally adjusted diffusion indexJul (20’)15th July 2020
    Retail Sales & Food Services (SA, Mil.$)Jun (20’)16th July 2020
    Philadelphia Manufacturing Survey Current Activity Diffusion IndexJul (20’)16th July 2020
    Philadelphia Manufacturing Survey New OrdersJul (20’)16th July 2020
    Unemployment Insurance: Initial Claims, State Programs (SA, Thous)Jul (20’)16th July 2020
    University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment (NSA, Q1-66=100)Jul (20’)17th July 2020
    University of Michigan: Current Economic Conditions (NSA, Q1-66=100)Jul (20’)17th July 2020
    University of Michigan: Consumer Expectations (NSA, Q1-66=100)Jul (20’)17th July 2020
    New Private Housing Units Authorized by Building Permit [Flash] (SAAR, Thous.Units)Jul (20’)17th July 2020
    Housing Starts (SAAR, Thous.Units)Jul (20’)17th July 2020

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