EIU Nowcast: Coronavirus hit begins
2024-04-07 10:40
The EIU nowcast for Q1 2020 GDP growth fell sharply to 0.58% year-on-year as on March 27th.
The EIU nowcast is currently predicting the US economy to contract by -0.95% (on a quarter-on-quarter basis) during the first quarter.
The impact of the coronavirus on the US economy is becoming more prominent as further March data are released.
Among last week’s data releases, consumer sentiment data from University of Michigan fell significantly, while PMI data showed sharp contractions.
The biggest impact that drove the sharp downward revision of the nowcast was from the release of the weekly jobless claims data, which increased to unprecedented levels signalling the rising economic toll from COVID-19.
To get the full background to our EIU Nowcast, view our methodology and FAQs page or contact us using the form below.
Data releases (last week)
Indicators Reference Period Release Date New Private Housing Units Authorized by Building Permit [Actual] (SAAR, Thous.Units) Feb (20’) 24th Mar 2020 US PMI: Svcs Business Activity Index [Latest Est incl Flash] [Flash] (SA, 50+=Expansion) Mar (20’) 24th Mar 2020 US Markit PMI: Manufacturing [Latest Estimates incl Flash] [Flash] (SA, 50 +=Expansion) Mar (20’) 24th Mar 2020 Manufacturers’ New Orders: Durable Goods [Flash] (SA, Mil.$) Feb (20’) 25th Mar 2020 Manufacturers’ Inventories: Durable Goods [Flash] (EOP, SA, Mil.$) Feb (20’) 25th Mar 2020 Manufacturers’ Unfilled Orders: Durable Goods [Flash] (EOP, SA, Mil.$) Feb (20’) 25th Mar 2020 Exports, f.a.s.: Goods [Flash] (SA, Mil.$) Feb (20’) 26th Mar 2020 Imports, Customs Value: Goods [Flash] (SA, Mil.$) Feb (20’) 26th Mar 2020 Unemployment Insurance: Initial Claims, State Programs (Weekly) (SA, Thous) Mar (20’) 26th Mar 2020 Insured Unemployment, State Programs (Weekly) (SA, Thous) Mar (20’) 26th Mar 2020 Real Disposable Personal Income (SAAR, Bil.Chn.2012$) Feb (20’) 27th Mar 2020 Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (SAAR, Bil.Chn.2012$) Feb (20’) 27th Mar 2020 University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment [Actual] (NSA, Q1-66=100) Mar (20’) 27th Mar 2020 University of Michigan: Current Economic Conditions [Actual] (NSA, Q1-66=100) Mar (20’) 27th Mar 2020 University of Michigan: Consumer Expectations [Actual] (NSA, Q1-66=100) Mar (20’) 27th Mar 2020 Data releases (current week)
Indicators Reference Period Release Date Conference Board: Consumer Confidence (SA, 1985=100) Mar (20’) 31st Mar 2020 Conference Board: Consumer Confidence Present Situation (SA, 1985=100) Mar (20’) 31st Mar 2020 MNI-Chicago Report: Business Barometer Index (SA, 50+ = Econ Growth) Mar (20’) 31st Mar 2020 ISM Mfg: PMI Composite Index (SA, 50+ = Econ Expand) Mar (20’) 1st Apr 2020 ADP Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (SA Change, Thous.) Mar (20’) 1st Apr 2020 US Markit PMI: Manufacturing [Latest Estimates incl Flash] [Actual] (SA, 50 +=Expansion) Mar (20’) 1st Apr 2020 Manufacturers’ New Orders: Durable Goods [Actuals] (SA, Mil.$) Feb (20’) 2nd Apr 2020 Manufacturers’ Inventories: Durable Goods [Actuals] (EOP, SA, Mil.$) Feb (20’) 2nd Apr 2020 Manufacturers’ Unfilled Orders: Durable Goods [Actuals] (EOP, SA, Mil.$) Feb (20’) 2nd Apr 2020 Exports, f.a.s.: Goods [Actual] (SA, Mil.$) Feb (20’) 2nd Apr 2020 Imports, Customs Value: Goods [Actual] (SA, Mil.$) Feb (20’) 2nd Apr 2020 Unemployment Insurance: Initial Claims, State Programs (Weekly) (SA, Thous) Mar (20’) 2nd Apr 2020 Insured Unemployment, State Programs (Weekly) (SA, Thous) Mar (20’) 2nd Apr 2020 US PMI: Svcs Business Activity Index [Latest Est incl Flash [Actual] (SA, 50+=Expansion) Mar (20’) 3rd Apr 2020 ISM Non Manufacturing : NMI Composite Index (SA, +50=Increasing) Mar (20’) 3rd Apr 2020 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls excluding the Effect of Strikes (SA, Thous) Mar (20’) 3rd Apr 2020 Contact us
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