A scenario modelling assessment by The Economist Intelligence Unit

Artificial intelligence (AI) has moved from the margins to the mainstream over the last five years, reflecting remarkable improvements in performance, range and speed. In response, policymakers must think carefully about how AI and AI-assisted automation will affect their country’s economy and labour market.

To support decision-makers in Thailand, the Institute of Public Policy and Development (IPPD) commissioned The Economist Intelligence Unit (The EIU) to study the impacts of increased AI adoption on the Thai economy.

Key findings from our analysis show that:

• If Thai workers whose jobs are at risk of automation fail to retrain, by 2035 the employment rate could fall by 23 percentage points compared to today.

• Without an effective industrial policy that harnesses AI, Thailand risks losing 6% in GDP in 2035 compared to our forecast, due to losses in export competitiveness and declines in foreign direct investment.

• By introducing the right interventions, governments and policy stakeholders can harness AI and its associated automation tools to boost skills, strengthen international competitiveness, and improve public services. If Thailand acts on both skills and industrial policy, by 2035 it could keep unemployment levels low and see an increase in GDP to over US$1trn by 2035, up from US$544bn today.

The study assesses three potential scenarios – Ox, Bees and Elephant – that present the risks and opportunities of AI in Thailand out to 2035. Click here for a comprehensive breakdown of each scenario’s key potential outcomes.