• The market for cooling – refrigeration and air conditioning – is already substantial and is on a rapid growth trend. 

• The EIU estimates that 4.8bn new units of cooling equipment will be sold globally between 2019 and 2030.

• Owing to a range of benefits in areas as diverse as food security and health, this uptick in demand must be met if countries are to meet the Sustainable Development Goals.

• However, cooling devices are also a substantial and growing contributor to climate change as they contribute to emissions both directly and indirectly. 

• While individuals are currently the largest source of cooling demand, demand is growing most quickly among commercial and industrial cooling users – from hotels to data centre operators.

•  Businesses must take urgent steps to reduce the need for cooling, shift to cooling with lower emissions, improve cooling efficiency, and protect those most vulnerable to a lack of cooling.

‘The Cooling Imperative: Forecasting the size and source of future cooling demand’ is an Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) report commissioned by the Kigali Cooling Efficiency Program (K-CEP). The report forecasts the size and source of future cooling demand out to 2030. It quantifies the need to transition to more efficient, climate-friendly cooling, and maps out what this transition could look like.

“The market for cooling products and services is booming and is projected to grow hugely. This is important to meet human needs; however, if we fail to sustainably transform the cooling market we will fail to avoid a climate catastrophe.”

DAN HAMZA-GOODACRE, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR OF K-CEP

Driven by climate change, urbanisation and income growth, demand for cooling – refrigeration and air conditioning – is on a rapid growth trend. The EIU estimates that 4.8bn new units of cooling equipment will be sold globally between 2019 and 2030. The growing demand for cooling that our forecasts highlight must be met – and quickly. The uptick in cooling demand will come on top of an already substantial “cooling gap”. 

Scaling up affordable access to cooling will be critical if countries are to meet the Sustainable Development Goals, particularly in the areas of food security, health, education, employee productivity and equality. 

However, cooling devices are a substantial and growing contributor to climate change. Most cooling devices are a direct source of emissions, owing to their use and leakage of hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFC) or hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) refrigerants. The devices also contribute emissions indirectly as they typically run, often very inefficiently, on fossil fuel-based power. 

In an absolute sense, demand will be driven by China. However, the relative pace of growth will be faster elsewhere, such as India and Indonesia. Domestic and residential cooling accounts for more than 60% of overall demand, placing the onus on real estate developers and households. But demand is growing most quickly among commercial and industrial cooling users – from hotels to data centre operators.

“Leading companies are seizing this business opportunity – with clever design and smarter energy use offsetting growing energy demand. But we need to scale up and fast. The first signatories to our EP100 Cooling Challenge include key Indian manufacturers and a major hotel chain, as well as a Middle Eastern retail giant – every major company should follow suit.”

HELEN CLARKSON, CEO OF THE CLIMATE GROUP

The EIU’s report highlights the urgent steps that must be taken to avoid the need for cooling, shift to cooling with lower emissions, improve cooling efficiency, and protect those most vulnerable to a lack of cooling. 

 “The Cooling Imperative” is available here free of charge.